Commentary: 'Striking A Winning Formula With Alliances'

By Syed Amin Jafri (Guest Writer)

With the Union Cabinet fixing its seal of approval, the UPA government has fast-tracked the process of formation of Telangana state. Volatile Seemandhra agitation and mounting pressure of Samaikyawadi leaders notwithstanding, the Congress high command is keen to ensure that bifurcation process is completed soon enough so that the two states would go to polls to elect their respective Assemblies along with Lok Sabha elections in April 2014. 
The firm determination of Congress bosses in Delhi not to delay the process, come what may, has imparted a new sense of urgency to political parties for seeking alliances, either pre-poll or postpoll, in one or both states. 
    
While some parties are desperately displaying “Alliances Wanted” boards, some others are keeping their strategies under wraps for the time being. The crux of the matter is that all the parties, including minor players, are keen to bolster up their prospects through alliances, as they had been doing all along in the past. 

The era of pre-poll alliances, sometimes euphemistically called as seat adjustments or electoral understanding, dawned in AP with the advent of Telugu Desam Party under N T Rama Rao’s leadership. This assumed significance in the wake of NTR’s “Save Democracy movement” when he was dethroned for a month by Nadendla Bhaskar Rao in August-September 1984. 
    
After Indira Gandhi’s assassination, Lok Sabha polls were advanced by a couple of months. NTR saw these elections as an opportunity to corner the Congress through a multi-party alliance so that anti-Congress votes get consolidated and not scattered through multi-cornered contests. 

NTR brought ideologically-disparate parties like CPI, CPM, BJP, Janata and Congress-Socialist onto TDP-led alliance and reaped rich dividends. When the Congress wave swept through the country, AP was the lone state unaffected by it. TDP bagged 30 seats and emerged as the largest opposition party in Lok Sabha. Allies got five seats and Congress tally was restricted to six. 
    
NTR dealt a further blow to the Congress when he dissolved the Assembly and called snap polls in March 1985. The multi-party alliance helped TDP retain its two-thirds majority in the Assembly. The Congress strength was reduced to 50 MLAs in the 294-member House. 

However, the same alliance could not come to TDP’s rescue when NTR faced anti-incumbency in 1989 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Congress, under M Channa Reddy’s leadership, wrested power from NTR and reduced TDP’s tally to only two Lok Sabha seats from the state. 
    
However, NTR did not abandon the politics of alliances and took CPI and CPM on board for 1994 Assembly polls and trounced the Congress with a vengeance. The Congress was virtually routed with its tally dropping to an alltime low of 26 seats. Chandrababu Naidu, who grabbed power from his father-in-law in 1995, continued poll tie-up with Left parties in 1996 and 1998 Lok Sabha elections. 

After switching over to NDA bandwagon, TDP sailed with BJP in 1999 and 2004 simultaneous polls to Assembly and Lok Sabha. The rout in 2004 elections for both partners pushed TDP back to Left parties while BJP contested 2009 Assembly and Lok Sabha polls on its own. 
    
Even when alliance partners could not work out seat-sharing to one another’s satisfaction and put up candidates in more constituencies, NTR and Chandrababu called these as “friendly contests” and ensured that the “alliance dharma” was intact. 
    
The only time the Congress went for an alliance in the last three decades was in 2004, when it had taken on board TRS and Left parties. All other times, the Congress fought the poll battles on its own and witnessed sharp ups and downs in its electoral fortunes. TRS fought 2004 and 2009 polls in alliance with Congress and TDP respectively. Sometimes, BJP had to go it alone as in 1994 and 2009 assembly polls and 1991, 1996, 1998 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. 

Now, BJP seems to be the most soughtafter potential ally not only for TDP but also for TRS and YSR Congress as well. Both TDP and TRS are eager to have pre-poll tie-up with BJP. YSRCP, on the other hand, is not averse to a post-poll alliance with BJP. NaMo seems to have cast his spell on Chandrababu, KCR and Jagan alike.