Seems that incumbent chief ministers in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi are safe in the forthcoming Assembly polls with the opposing political parties not succeeding enough to create a ground to dislodge them even from their constituencies.
Anti-incumbency is visible in the election-going states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, but not against incumbent chief ministers.
This is because political parties fighting for power in these states have not yet succeeded in building the campaign against chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Ashok Gehlot, Raman Singh and Sheila Dikshit.
Anti-incumbency is working against legislators and ministers of the Congress and the BJP in these states and the picture could be different if the top leaders of the two parties take corrective steps in shortlisting nominees and change the campaign strategy.
If the elections were fought purely on local issues with a local face, national leaders will hardly influence voters.
But as inflation and corruption are the issues, then the role of the Centre and Central schemes would also be debated during the campaign.
The Congress lost Madhya Pradesh 10 years ago because then Opposition BJP had built the campaign against Digvijay Singh on the issues of bijli, paani, sadak.
The Janata Dal (U)-BJP came to power in Bihar after a prolonged campaign against RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav while the Shiv Sena-BJP came to power in Maharashtra in 1995 only after launching a targeted campaign against Sharad Pawar.
BSP supremo Mayawati, KJP chief B.S. Yeddyurappa and TDP’s N. Chandrababu Naidu became the target of their political adversaries in UP, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. West Bengal could be the only exception where an individual did not become the villain. In fact, Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee made the Left Front the target of her party’s attack and came to power in the state.
Meanwhile, an election survey on Wednesday predicted that regional parties currently outside the ambit of both the UPA and the NDA will hold the key to the formation of the next government at the Centre in 2014.
It has also projected the BJP-led NDA well ahead of the ruling Congress-led UPA.
The study, carried out jointly by C-Voter and private TV channels, projects huge losses for the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Kerala, where it had got a good number of seats last time and good gains for the BJP in UP and Bihar, and a reversal of fortune in Rajasthan.
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