The government is grappling with aggressive whiplash over last evening's decision to proceed with the creation of a Telangana state. Three Union ministers have sent their resignation letters to the PM, and Jagan Mohan Reddy says he will go on an indefinite fast from tomorrow against the decision. Amidst huge protests in parts of Andhra Pradesh over the cabinet decision, INN ask on Left, Right And Centre: by putting Telangana on the fast-track has the government made a politically explosive gamble?
Hard political games are afoot beneath the surface of the ongoing agitation against bifurcation of the State and no party seems immune to this. The Congress central leadership appears to have more or less succeeded in bulldozing its Seemandhra MPs, including Union Ministers, a majority of whom have fallen silent in the wake of the Cabinet’s approval for formation of a Telangana State.
It is unlikely that any of the ministers are going to press for acceptance of their resignations, though one of them, MM Pallam Raju, is said to be remarking that his continuance in the Cabinet and thereby, as a member of the GoM, set up to look into issues arising out of division, depends on what kind of assurance he gets on protecting the interests of Andhra-Rayalaseema regions.
Back in the State, two episodes over the week have virtually split Congress leaders. First was the meeting held at the residence of Finance Minister Anam Ramnarayana Reddy after which the participants made no secret of their disapproval of the line taken by Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy.
On his part, Kiran seems to believe the meeting would not have taken place without some sort of clearance from Delhi and also sees the handiwork of a couple of MPs behind it. Then came the attack on the properties of PCC chief Botcha Satyanarayana which has divided the Congressmen along caste lines. Interestingly, BC leaders from Telangana were among the first to condemn the attacks, squarely blaming the Chief Minister and Vijayawada MP L Rajagopal for it.
Thus, even as it is going through the process of bifurcating the State, the Congress leadership has managed to bring about a clear divide among its men in Andhra-Rayalaseema regions, irrespective of their public posturing.
But, can division be taken as an inevitable event now or will there be a slip between the cup and the lip? This is the question bothering not only Telangana leaders but also their counterparts on the other side of the divide.
TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu, meanwhile, is set to embark on a fast in Delhi from Monday seeking equal justice to both Telangana and Andhra during the course of division and an animated discussion is taking place on what course the BJP will finally take.
Sections within the BJP and others are reportedly putting pressure on the top leadership that the failure of the Congress to douse the flames in Andhra is a good enough reason for the party to negotiate a way to block the T bill in Parliament. A senior party leader had in fact recently arranged a meeting between the party’s Seemandhra leaders with top leaders in Delhi like LK Advani.
The BJP’s Hyderabad-based leaders are, however, firmly against a tie-up with the TDP on the ground that alliance with a regional party will never help them become an alternative political force in the State. “We have 12-15% vote-bank in pockets in Telangana and at least 5% in Andhra.
The ideal situation would be to build on this and emerge as an alternative rather than clinging on to the regional parties,” a party leader argued. The TDP is said to be of the view that a tie-up with the BJP would help only if the state remains united. Meanwhile, the latest remarks made by YSRC chief Jagan Mohan Reddy praising Narendra Modi fuelled speculation that he too is mulling the pros and cons of aligning with the BJP.
Unlike the TDP, tie-up with BJP for YSRC will not depend on whether the state is united or divided considering that Jagan’s party has virtually no presence in Telangana. But, it would come at the cost of losing the Muslim vote which is now significantly tilted towards YSRC.
On her part, Sonia Gandhi appears firm on getting the T bill introduced in Parliament, though the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is still not on board with the Congress on the question of merger. “If the bill is blocked, it will give Sonia an opportunity to hit out at the BJP for backtracking on an issue which it had been supporting all along and even question the credibility of other promises being made by Modi and company,” a senior party leader said.
With the Union Cabinet clearing the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana is one big step closer to realisation. But like any partition, this too will come with pain, dislocation, anxiety and anger. A new State might not have been the best of solutions to address the inequities of development in the region, but it became politically inevitable after a prolonged, intense agitation by large sections of the people.
Not surprisingly, the people of coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema have adopted similar tactics in opposition to the bifurcation, forcing a shutdown of Seemandhra. Though their movement has been peaceful, there is a danger of violence gaining political legitimacy, thanks to the muddled and opportunist thinking of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre which rushed to put the Cabinet’s seal of approval without bothering to deliberate over proposals to safeguard the legitimate concerns of Seemandhra.
Whether it leaned towards granting statehood to Telangana, or stepped back in favour of the status quo, the Centre’s reasoning and actions seemed inspired by petty electoral-political calculations. Depending on the dominant popular mood, the UPA government has swung one way, then another, each time lacking the conviction needed to carry a difficult decision forward.
But now that the creation of Telangana is almost a fait accompli, those opposed to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh should focus on their specific concerns such as the status of the capital Hyderabad, the sharing of Krishna and Godavari waters, free movement of goods and people between the two States, and the protection of lives and means of livelihood.
The political options of those opposed to the new State are rather limited. Given that the powers are concentrated in the hands of the Centre when it comes to creation of new States, much will depend on the attitude of the two national parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Both are now backing the creation of Telangana. Parties covertly or overtly opposed to Telangana such as the Telugu Desam Party and the YSR Congress might not be able to influence the course of events even if they are elected in large numbers to the State Assembly and the Lok Sabha in 2014.
The imperative now is to ensure that the process of bifurcation is smooth, and that the concerns of coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema are taken into account. Besides allowing for Hyderabad as a shared capital for a period of 10 years, the Centre must ensure that this city, which remains the most contentious issue for the two sides, remains accessible to both Telangana and the residuary Andhra Pradesh as a source of employment for their people and revenue generation for their governments. The people of Seemandhra must press ahead with hope, and not look back in anger or regret.
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