As the above axiom goes, the developments since convening of All Party meeting to the assurance of Congress high-command to its MPs of its decision by one month and the loose talk of Ghulam Nabi Azad etc. were not accidental, they were all meticulously planned.
And let us introspect on what Azad had said or rather uttered to substantiate the above argument: Azad said there was no specific deadline as such to finalize a decision on Telangana and by such loose utterances, Azad has not only triggered an intensified polarizing united-separate state debate, but also set the party’s agenda for 2014 elections.
It’s another matter whether he should have been making such loaded political statements, especially, when the Home Minister of the country is all set to make the decision on Telangana, to give a chance to hostile elements to latch on to his words to debunk Congress’ stand on Telangana( if there is any).
What is not clear is whether Azad’s comments – which have sparked outrage among Telangana votaries, shell shocked the T-Congress leaders and led to street protests – came off his own bat or forms part of a larger scheme to raise the political temperature. That he made the statement immediately after the meeting with Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other Core Committee member was significant.
Given the leading questions of both Vylar Ravi and Azad thrown at both Seemanadhra and Telangana Congress leaders about their likely performance in the 2014 elections, one is drawn to surmise that the Congress high-command is fretful about its prospects in the 2014 elections and not about the people of the state.
The focus of all parties, it appears, be it TRS which is successful in confusing the major parties forcing them to commit a series of blunders, TDP which perfected in somersaulting feats on the issue, and the Congress which started and sponsored the whole vicious game, is not on the people but strategies and game-plans to outwit one another.
Amidst the above game plan, the both the separatists and integrationists among Congress ranks have played their role to perfection as scripted, produced and directed by the party high command whose “Culture or ideology” is neither a “Rightist or Leftist” one. Its survival rests on its ability to adapt itself to the “Centrist, more aptly Neutral politics”.
Therefore, the division of the AP State is an extraordinary challenge to be faced by the congress to prove its credentials to uphold shift to “Positive” politics, a new mantra being advocated by Rahul Gandhi, the newly crowned prince of the Party.
Whatever is going to be scripted and declared on 27/28 January 2013(if at all it decides to make) may follow the above ideological lines? it is not so simple for the Congress Party to reconcile national security interests with local, sub regional and regional aspirations and interests. Viewed in such a holistic framework, it is a catch-22 crisis situation.
Either the Congress has to shed its neutral politics and the “time would heal the wounds” concept or to take high moral ground of unity and integrity of the nation or abandon it in favour of smaller states – 50 or more. They will be only fooling themselves and the nation if they take one time exception decision on division of the AP State.
Thus, we have now come to the million dollar question:
What is the denouement of the announcement of Azad to further postponement of a decision on Telangana? It doesn’t have one straight reply. It has too many answers and ramifications too. All of them defy the intellectual discourse.
1. It is time for KCR to come out of his hiatus and plan his next moves in a highly reflective fashion.
2. Quite a few among the TRS leaders, including the KCR family members spearheading the movement, are not ignorant to the likelihood of dynamic post declaration alignments/realignments. On formation of Telangana, if congress decides so, many apprehend that the TRS will be left with no other option but to ‘merge’ with the Congress. If that happens, KCR and other leaders of TRS may as well become irrelevant in the eyes of T-region people. In such a scenario, what are the options left for KCR and his TRS? The ‘negative or neutral’ decision by the Congress Party , yet again ‘deceiving’, may become more ‘positive’ than ever for TRS to gain maximum ‘sympathy’ and ‘support’ from the electorate in the 2014 or next round of elections whenever they are held.
3. KCR and his TRS followers are bound to benefit by the “neutral” politics of the Congress High Command, which appears quite likely. Whether KCR choose aggressive path by spearheading violent agitations which may create law and order problem or work his way to win over the people by convincing them to give a fitting reply through ballot, one may have to wait and see. As a seasoned practitioner of agitation politics, it is quite possible that KCR may blow “hot and cold” until the next round of elections. Surely, KCR and T-JAC and other separatist leaders would not like to cross the threshold of equilibrium which may force the face of imposition of “Presidents Rule” inevitability. By adopting such a strategy, all political aspirants would have handful of opportunities to advance ‘politics’ as a real career by getting elected with ‘assured’ if not ‘thumping’ majority in the next round of elections.
4. The Congress retracted on its commitment of one month. For Seemanadhra Congress leaders, it is just a face-saving for now. Their ‘Stall Telangana’ mission is successful at least for now. The claims of the Telangana Congress leaders turned out to be a rhetoric.
5. It is certainly not a win-win or win-lose situation for the Congress. Any decision is a political gamble for the party. For, separation or not, the party is almost poised to take a severe drubbing in Seemanadhra region. It might stand to gain only if the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is merged with or at least entered into an electoral truck with the Congress. Even then, the possibility of disappointed aspirants of party tickets of both TRS and the Congress might side with an alternate party and in this case, it could be even YSR Congress.
6. The TDP, which handed over a letter claiming that it had not gone back on its earlier letter given to Pranab Mukherjee panel in 2008, must be heaving a sigh of relief today. For, it could still claim in the high streets of Telangana that it was in favour of the separation of the State wearing its heart on its sleeve. It could also sport a smile on its face and communicate what it wants with the wink of an eye to the people of Seemanadhra region. A deft political move, indeed.
7. For now, Telangana Congress leaders are crestfallen and are hanging their heads in shame.
8. The YSR Congress, two of whose legislators had offered to resign in favour of united Andhra Pradesh, too can relax for now and concentrate on fighting its legal battles on behalf of its incarcerated president Y S Jaganmohan Reddy.
In sum, the post 28 January, 2013 declaration, if any, is all set to defy all the intellectual logic with all political actors involved in the ”game Telangana” obdurately sticking to their positions and postures.
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